We produce the Justice Sector Forecast on behalf of the justice sector. The forecast is important for strategic planning within the sector. It includes:
Prison forecast, covering the sentenced and remand prison populations. This looks 10 years ahead to give a long-term view of trends in the prison population.
One-year Prison forecast, also covering the sentenced and remand prison populations. This looks ahead on a weekly basis for one year to capture short-term variation in the prison population, and is updated quarterly.
Non-custodial sentences forecast covering offenders serving community sentences, and those on post-sentence orders.
Crown Law forecast, covering the numbers of Crown prosecutions and appeals undertaken by Crown solicitors (under the oversight of the Solicitor-General) or lawyers from Crown Law.
Fines and remittals forecast, covering the numbers of impositions, receipts and remittals of monetary penalties to Community Work sentences.
Legal aid forecast, covering the numbers of grants, average costs, expenditure, and debt recovery for legal aid.
Quarterly monitoring reports
These reports monitor the progress of the forecast against the real-life behaviour of the system, and also look at how accurate forecast assumptions have been. From March 2016, these will be called Justice Sector Outlook reports, and will include details of any forecasts refreshed during the most recent quarter.
Forecast reports give details of new forecasts. Prior to 2013 there was one forecast a year, covering an increasing number of parts of the justice sector. Since 2013, that forecast has been broken down into several smaller forecasts.